Consumption Expected to Hold Steady, Though Spain May Lose Competitiveness
The industry expresses discontent over the tariffs, calling them “very bad news,” and urges their removal .
The U.S. is Spain’s second-largest buyer of “liquid gold,” surpassed only by Italy.
The trade war launched by U.S. President Donald Trump has dealt one of its most significant blows—aside from China—to the European Union, with the imposition of a 20% tariff on imports of thousands of products. Among them is olive oil, a jewel of Spanish gastronomy highly valued in the American market.
The United States is Spain’s second-largest importer of olive oil, following Italy. In fact, olive oil was Spain’s top export to the U.S., with over 110,000 tonnes shipped, valued at €1.013 billion (16.4% of the total), according to data from Spain’s Secretary of State for Trade.
Title: Olive Oil Sales to the U.S. Represented 16.4% of Total Exports in 2024
Subtitle: Evolution of Spanish olive oil exports to the United States and the rest of the world (in millions of euros)
Source: DataComex (Ministry of Economy, Trade and Enterprise) – RTVE
The industry has voiced its displeasure over these tariffs, calling them “very bad news,” and is demanding their complete withdrawal. Trump has decided to delay their implementation by 90 days. For now, the tariff remains at 10%, pending the outcome of negotiations between the two economic powers.
This is not the first time the U.S. government has imposed tariffs on this product. In 2019, amid the Airbus-Boeing dispute, a tariff caused packaged olive oil exports to plummet by 80%, coinciding with the onset of the pandemic.
However, experts believe that this time, consumption in the U.S.—a “very mature” market with a focus on “quality and the Mediterranean diet,” and a consumer base with “medium to high income levels,” according to Juan Luis Ávila, head of the olive sector at the Coordinating Committee of Farmers and Ranchers (COAG)—will not be significantly affected.
Similarly, Juan Vilar, agronomist and PhD in Economics and Business from the University of Jaén, believes that the average American consumer “won’t even notice” the new 20% tariff in the medium term due to “the recent drop in olive oil prices at the source.”
“Consumers Will Be Buying Olive Oil 46% Cheaper”
In fact, Vilar claims, American consumers will be purchasing olive oil “at a price 46% lower than six months ago.”
This is due to the non-linear nature of olive oil prices, which depend on the commodity market. Currently, the price is around €3.5 per kilo, but just a year ago, it exceeded €9 per kilo due to severe supply shortages caused by persistent droughts.
Vilar explains that countries like Italy, Greece, and Tunisia “maintain a steady supply” of olive oil. However, “the U.S., being a more distant producer, tends to purchase larger batches” to stock up for longer periods.
What does this mean? “That the 66% price drop hasn’t yet been reflected on supermarket shelves, because current inventory was bought when prices were higher,” the professor from the University of Jaén emphasizes.
As a result, American consumers are still paying high prices for Spanish olive oil. But once the tariff is enforced, they’ll be buying it “at a price 46% lower,” assuming the 66% drop in origin prices is combined with the 20% tariff.
Concerns Over Non-EU Markets
The Spanish Association of the Olive Oil Industry and Export Trade (Asoliva) fears that these tariffs could create a “severe distortion in the international market to the detriment of European markets, especially Spain.” They point out that Spanish olive oil is at a disadvantage due to the 20% tariff, compared to the 10% for producers outside the EU.
“We are demanding a halt to duty-free oil imports into the EU from Tunisia,” says the COAG representative, who believes that “just suspending the Tunisian quota coming into Spain”—which stood at 12,000 tonnes last season, according to the Ministry of Agriculture—could “perfectly offset” the impact of the U.S. tariffs.
Another non-EU country that could gain competitiveness at Spain’s expense is Turkey, which last year became the world’s second-largest olive oil producer, trailing only Spain.
“The issue is that Turkey can export at lower production costs, and now its 10% tariff is more favorable than the EU’s,” Asoliva Director Rafael Pico told RTVE.es. He warns that this could lead to “a diversion of olive oil imports from Spain to these markets.”
However, the University of Jaén professor dismisses this possibility: “Turkey is well protected from economies like the EU and the U.S., requiring a 20% VAT on imports—which is not common in other countries. While this VAT is refundable in the medium term, it must be paid upfront,” he says. He also predicts that Turkey will focus on mass-producing table olives, especially now that raw olive oil prices are falling.
The U.S. Produces Only 3% of What It Consumes
Despite these debates, experts agree that the real loser will be the American consumer. “The only thing this tariff will do is force importers to pay more for olive oil from other countries, and that price hike will be passed on to the supermarket,” summarizes Juan Vilar.
They also rule out the possibility of the U.S. replacing foreign olive oil with domestic production, since the country produces only 3% of what it consumes—around 15,000 of the 360,000 tonnes it imports.
Of that total, Spain exported about 128,000 tonnes last year, followed by Italy with around 110,000, Tunisia with 58,000, and Turkey with 28,000. These four countries combined account for 90% of all olive oil imported by the U.S., according to the U.S. International Trade Commission.
“Olive oil is not something that can be produced overnight; it’s a woody crop that takes years to become productive. Besides, one of the few productive regions in the U.S.—California—focuses on other crops that are more profitable than olive oil. So I don’t think they’ll make that shift,” adds the COAG representative.
Exploring New Markets as an Alternative
In response, the Spanish government has pledged to mobilize €14.1 billion to support affected sectors and strengthen their international position. The plan includes identifying alternative markets, a goal that the Minister of Economy, Trade, and Business, Carlos Cuerpo, has reiterated in recent days.
“Two of the sectors most affected by these tariffs in Spain are wine and olive oil. And for us, opening a market like Mercosur could result in a 40–50% increase in exports for both sectors,” he said last Monday.
Still, analysts believe it will be difficult to find a market to match the U.S. “At this time, there is no alternative market that can absorb the volume Spain exports to the U.S.,” says Rafael Pico, pointing out that olive oil is already consumed in 198 countries.
“What can be done is to strengthen other markets,” suggests Juan Vilar, though he notes that such effects “will only be reflected in sales over a reasonable timeframe—not immediately.” COAG believes that priority should be given to the European market, particularly Central Europe, “which is not yet well-developed and has significant growth potential.”
Yet the industry hasn’t lost hope: “We must negotiate, negotiate, and negotiate,” they insist, hoping that olive oil will ultimately be one of the least affected products by the tariffs, given that it is a staple good the U.S. will continue to import. For now, there are 90 days to make that case.
Link: https://www.rtve.es/noticias/20250410/aceite-oliva-espana-aranceles-trump/16534359.shtml